Throughout our endless European – and worldwide – wars, we learn that killing millions of soldiers and destroying property is not necessarily the best and the most efficient way to wage war. So, we’ve concluded that economic and information wars are the way forward, for the simple fact that in these modern and post-modern times, industrial might and financial power are the two criteria that are most likely to determine the outcome of war.
Thus, basically, I think it makes no sense sending troops to Crimea (Ukraine) and have the youth kill each other for the might of Vladimir Putin and a handful of criminals currently running Russia as their own feud. Instead, we – as in the rest of the UN – are waging an elementary economic war against Russian economy and this is for a very simple reason: if Russia broke one political treaty, it is very likely to break other treaties as well, including economic ones, with regards to trade and investor rights.
As a matter of fact, by cutting the gas supplies to some countries, a few years back, Russia has already broken a handful of treaties, including some “unbreakable” free trade agreements, but the international response to this was staggeringly weak because most European countries applied the non-implication principle: “it didn’t happen to me”. Disgusting.
To this day, the European Union still does not have a common energy policy, because of Merkel… But I digress.
So, we’re not sending troops to Crimea because we don’t want to have a fully fledged military-driven war, as we can’t have the whole planet die in a nuclear holocaust.
For this reason, the only tools we have available today – other than total extinction of life on Earth – are the international economy and the world information infrastructure.
Now, about the economy. It’s not that easy to act, simply because foreigners invested money in Russia and they would like to get them back. This is why things appear to move so slow: if we don’t get our money back, Russia will keep them. In an economic war, this is undesirable.
Of course, Russia can always nationalize properties, it has been done in the past and I believe that the situation in Russia will get that bad in a matter of days and, as you may have already deduced, we’re racing to get as much of our properties back before that happens.
So, this looks like a lose-lose for us and Ukraine, right?
Looks so, yes. Is it so? Not really, on the contrary:
- More than a handful investments planned for Russia will relocate to Eastern Europe, including Ukraine.
- Most likely, in a few years, direct investments to Ukraine will exceed twenty billion.
- We know, we learnt from history, that whatever goes into Russia, never exists easily, so I don’t expect to have Crimea become Russian-army free. To compensate that, the civilized world generosity will become visible: in exchange for agreeing not to kill everyone on Earth to restore the international law in Crimea, we’ll offer you the best that we currently can: substantial financial help. Killing everyone on Earth will not help Ukrainian cause.
- However, the gross of the financial effort will not be carried by Ukraine, but by the European Union states, in lost revenue, lost investments and forever lost business opportunities, yet the damage is not limited to these.
Today, I was told, the Russian currency lost 11% of its value. That is, the Russian economy shrank by a staggering two hundred billion dollars today. Let’s think of the whole situation this way: for gaining 26,100 square kilometers, Russian economy lost about 220,000,000,000 dollars. Just in one day. This is roughly eight dollars per square meter. For just one day.
Furthermore, since the military actions taken by Russia pose a real, tangible threat to European peace and stability, I believe Russia will be made an example of, in spite of Angela Merkel’s weak position on this matter, recently and in the years past. Let’s look no further than the NATO summit in Bucharest, where Germany refused NATO joining for EU’s Eastern Partners, all of which are being currently held hostages by Russia:
1. Moldova, with its Russian-backed Transnistria breakaway region.
2. Abkhazia and Osetia, in Georgia, acquired by Russia during the 2008 Summer Olympics.
3. Ukraine, now, with Crimea and – quite likely – some other regions as far west as Odessa.
So, this is our Eastern Partnership and this is what we do: we have a very strong diplomatic language, while Russia breaks and bends people and holds over fifty million people hostage to a regime that can’t care any less about human values.
And we have made some mistakes in the past, regarding EU-Russia relations, but no more. At least, not from me, anyway, and I will push forward – as far as I possibly can – for severe sanctions about Russia and Russian politicians, because I know we can’t wait until Russia starts invading Baltic Countries or other regions.
Russia is already having real-ammo naval “exercises” near Kalinigrad, close to Poland, Germany and Sweden and let’s not forget that most wars in the recent centuries were preemptive wars, where one party waged war against the other in order to prevent some people form dying, leading to a hundred-fold carnage of an unspoken cruelty.
Finally, one must ask himself: by not taking the necessary steps, are we really saving lives? Remember Germany’s annexation of Poland, Czechoslovakian Republic? It wasn’t until the Reich became too powerful that UK and the rest of the civilized world acted. Are we that stupid so as to repeat this great mistake?
P.S. I saw Obama’s speech this weekend and all that I can say to the still free world is: we’re fucked! Never in the history of Nobel prizes, an award led to a more severe suffering.
P.P.S. I can’t even begin to describe how overwhelmingly underwhelming the E.U. officials’ reaction was and this makes me believe they are either criminally incompetent, or simply too coward to stand for the principles the people elected them to stand up to.